Before you lock in your darkhorse College Football Playoff predictions this offseason, take a closer look at the schedules involving your preferred group of teams. Who you play, when and where mean everything in the final four race and within the SEC and Big Ten, the nation’s most grueling schedules ahead of the 2023 season truly jump off the page given the top to bottom strengths of each league.
The Big Ten produced two playoff teams last fall and the SEC won the national championship four-consecutive seasons, including back-to-back titles from Georgia. Ironically, the Bulldogs have a cakewalk this fall by league standards.
Based on a weighted number of metrics including opponents’ 2022 winning percentage, expected contests against nationally-ranked competition, ESPN’s Football Power Index and schedule difficulty compared to other Power Five teams of similar skill levels, we’ve narrowed down college football’s toughest schedules this season into a dozen teams facing daunting slates.
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Here are the nation’s 12 most grueling schedules this fall and our thoughts on each team navigating through treacherous stretches.
The Volunteers leave the state of Tennessee only once prior to their Week 6 bye. One non-conference tilt of note comes against coach Jeff Traylor and UTSA. That’s a program on the rise in Texas and the Road Runners come to Neyland Stadium with an upset on their mind. Tennessee will likely be a favorite in two of its four road games, depending on where Kentucky is in the post-Will Levis era. We’re projecting here more than a year out, so it’s hard to say. Tennessee draws Alabama (permanent) and Texas A&M from the West. Brutal.
This is not the schedule you want to se if you’re an Indiana supporter. There’s a chance Indiana plays four top-10 opponents this season and may lose by multiple touchdowns to each of them. The most important stretch is November, however, where there are three winnable contests to close out the season. It’s unlikely, but the Hoosiers are able to get hot and topple Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue, they’ll go bowling and start shifting this thing under Tom Allen in a positive direction.
If you’re a Rutgers fan, turn your head and make sure you avoid looking at the November stretch. No team in college football has a more difficult four-game slate than the Scarlet Knights coming out of their open week. And that comes without mentioning prior road games against Michigan and Wisconsin. At least the non-conference is somewhat favorable. Wins elsewhere will be few and far between for Greg Schiano’s group. Big Ten scheduling looks a lot like their SEC brethren — impossible to conquer for the have nots in the conference.
With trips to LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama and Florida, the Razorbacks’ road schedule is daunting. The non-conference slate should provide four wins, but BYU could be a tough out and Kent State, which has not been afraid of scheduling big, played Georgia tough last season (albeit prior to coach Sean Lewis leaving for Colorado’s OC position). The Golden Flashes have played Washington and Oklahoma this season and travel to Georgia this weekend. Arkansas opens SEC play in September at LSU and has to go to Alabama and Florida later. This isn’t the Razorbacks’ toughest schedule under Sam Pittman, but it remains arduous.
As usual with Maryland’s schedule, there’s a handful of toss-up games that could go either way, including the trip to East Lansing in September and Nebraska a couple months later. If the Terrapins triumph over those two, Maryland could finish with nine victories during Taulia Tagovailoa’s final quarterback campaign. This offense is going to be one to watch, but there’s no path to a Big Ten Championship Game berth with three top 10s to play in their own division.
Welcome (back) to the SEC, Hugh Freeze. Auburn has a strong change to be 3-0 when SEC play begins in College Station, but there’s the double-whammy of Georgia and LSU after that. That could be a quick three-game losing streak for the Tigers against a trio of opponents who are each expected to field more talented rosters in 2023. How quickly can Freeze implement his offense on the Plains and does he currently have the quarterback to facilitate with precision? Those are questions Auburn is trying to answer.
Mel Tucker’s team gets to bowl eligibility, but that’s about it for the Spartans in terms of success this fall against one of the nation’s most brutal slates. Call the three biggest games of the year in getting over this win total Washington, Minnesota and Iowa. Michigan State’s not as talented as the Big Three (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State) and that aforementioned trio is going to be a doozy. A couple transfer portal losses over the weekend weren’t expected and didn’t come at an opportune time exiting spring practice.
Billy Napier’s second season will be determined by what happens pre-Halloween onward, beginning with the Georgia game following by Arkansas in Gainesville and a trip to LSU in consecutive. You’re talking about the Gators playing three of the SEC’s most physical teams at the line of scrimmage down the stretch with no breathing room. Prior to that stretch, Florida takes on three teams who will likely be ranked in Utah, Tennessee and Kentucky. It’s a brutal schedule. And by the way, the Gators are heading into this with a thin quarterback room and depth questions at other positions, too.
In September alone, in what amounts to a contract year for head coach Neal Brown, the Mountaineers battle Penn State at Beaver Stadium, then host Pittsburgh and Texas Tech before going to TCU. No room to take a breather there. They won’t play Texas during the regular season in the “new” Big 12, but the schedules is full of landmines and reaching bowl eligibility will be a feat that could extend Brown’s tenure at the program.
The Big Ten West is a three-team race. Minnesota is one of those programs with a shot to win it. However, among those candidates vying for supremacy at the top, the Golden Gophers also have the toughest road to get there with a campaign culminating with showdowns against Ohio State and Wisconsin. And according to ESPN’s FPI, have the second-toughest schedule overall in the nation. If they’re able to win both of those against the Buckeyes and Badgers, chances are high P.J. Fleck gets to Indianapolis unless there’s an unforeseen slip-up elsewhere.
Shane Beamer’s quest at continuing his upward ascension at South Carolina will be challenging this fall given the schedule in Year 3. The Gamecocks open against UNC, a team that won the ACC Coastal last season and returns the best player in the ACC in Drake Maye, before going to Georgia in Week 3 for the league opener. South Carolina travels to Tennessee and hosts Clemson as well, so that’s likely three top 10 opponents. At least the Gamecocks end the season with four home games in November.
The only SEC school to play road games against Alabama and Georgia next season, Lane Kiffin might be in for a step back in 2023 with the Rebels. The first three games should be wins unless Tulane shreds this Ole Miss defense with returning quarterback Michael Pratt and coach Willie Fritz in Week 2. The Green Wave did end the 2022 campaign as the Group of Five’s best team and could do so again. Ole Miss opens SEC play at Alabama and no team wants that when the bullets start flying in league play. It’s hard to see a path to a crown in the SEC West for the Rebels with this slate.