Mike Elko engineered one of the most dramatic turnarounds in college football last season, taking over a program that had gone 1-17 in conference play the previous two years and promptly finishing the 2023 slate with a 5-3 record in the ACC. The Blue Devils ended the year 9-4, including a resounding win in the Military Bowl over Central Florida.
With eighteen of twenty-two starters back for a debut season, including every skill position player on offense, Duke is not going to sneak up on anyone this year and is projected by Vegas oddsmakers to win enough games (their over/under is set at 6.5) to return to the postseason for a second straight time. That’s despite a schedule that is much more difficult across the board than last year’s and will test the progress made by Elko and staff in their time in Durham.
Here’s a breakdown of what challenges are facing the Blue Devils in 2023.
The season kicks off the night of Labor Day with a marquee matchup against the preseason No. 10 Clemson Tigers, one of a few games against teams ranked in the Top 10 on the upcoming schedule. On paper, this game will be projected to be a blowout victory in favor of the visiting Tigers, but a Duke team that is returning nearly all of their starters will get an opportunity to strike early on a Clemson offense that is playing its first game under new Offensive Coordinator Garrett Riley. They’re also working in new starter at QB in Cade Klubnik, a true sophomore who started the final two games of his freshman year.
Duke is currently 10.5 point underdogs in Vegas lines, but at least one college football analyst sees the Blue Devils with a good chance to make it a closer game than that. CBS Sports’ David Cobb goes further than that, and predicts that Duke will come away with the win.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Blue Devils just a 14.8% chance of getting the win.
Cumulative predicted record: 0-1
Hailing from the Patriot League, the Lafayette Leopards are coming off an injury-plagued 4-7 season under first-year head coach John Troxell, and Duke will have a definitive talent advantage when the two teams take the field. It’s a great game for the Blue Devils to continue to settle in to the 2023 season after a tough matchup against Clemson.
FPI projects a Duke win with 99.0% confidence.
Cumulative predicted record: 1-1
The third straight game at home to start the 2023 season, Duke takes on Northwestern in a game between one of the programs around the country that competes with them on the recruiting trail for high academic football players. Mike Elko led his team to a 31-23 win last year on the road, and this game returns back to Durham.
ESPN’s FPI projects a Duke win with 68.6% confidence.
Cumulative predicted record: 2-1
Duke’s first game on the road will come against the University of Connecticut, led by Jim Mora. The Huskies were one of the most surprising teams in college football last year, going 6-7 while beating Fresno State, Boston College and Liberty, and bowling for the first time since 2015.
The Blue Devils are heavily favored by ESPN’s FPI at this point in the offseason, with a 79.0% chance of getting the win.
Cumulative predicted record: 3-1
The fifth game of the season comes against the second independent opponent, as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish roll in to Wallace Wade Stadium on what Marcus Freeman will hope to be a path to the College Football Playoffs.
Duke will be heavy underdogs according to FPI, with just a 17.8% chance of coming away with a win.
Cumulative predicted record: 3-2
A much needed break for this team in between two teams that played for high level bowls last season comes as close to the middle of the season as you can get.
The Blue Devils have won two of the last three games against the Wolfpack going back to 2009, but the elimination of divisions in the ACC the two teams will be facing off against each other much more frequently. Dave Doeren’s team went 8-5 last season with a loss to Maryland in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, and lost a number of players to the transfer portal and NFL Draft. However, they return a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and will be yet another challenge on the back side of the schedule.
ESPN’s FPI predicts a narrow Duke loss, with a 46.2% chance of getting the upset win.
Cumulative predicted record: 3-3
Florida State was one of the most impressive teams in the ACC last year, going 10-3 with wins over three SEC foes. The Seminoles are projected as a Top 5 team heading in to the 2023 season, and presents one of the largest challenges for Mike Elko’s group this season. ESPN’s FPI predicts this as the toughest opponent for the Blue Devils this coming year, giving Elko’s group just a 13.4% chance of getting the upset win.
Cumulative predicted record: 3-4
The hits keep coming for Duke, as they will play their second consecutive game on the road against a former ACC Atlantic Division stalwart in Louisville, looking to cement their place in the postseason. The Cardinals made one of the best offseason coaching hires, bringing in Jeff Brohm from Purdue, and will instantly be in the conversation for the upper echelon of the ACC.
ESPN’s FPI predicts a third consecutive Duke loss, and fifth overall, with a small 32.4% chance of getting the upset win.
Cumulative predicted record: 3-5
Mike Elko got the win over his former boss in Year One, taking down Wake Forest on the road with a 34-31 win in the regular season finale. The two teams have gone in different directions since the end of last year, with the Demon Deacons losing starting quarterback Sam Hartman to Notre Dame via the transfer portal. Mitch Griffis, who played in relief of Hartman last season in the team’s game against VMI, is the projected starter going in to 2023.
This game could go either way, as ESPN’s FPI predicts a close game, with Duke having a 49.5% chance of beating Wake Forest.
Cumulative predicted record: 3-6
Duke had the win over UNC locked up last year before two penalties on the final drive nullified a passing touchdown that would have given them a double-digit lead with just over five minutes to play. This year’s game will be played in Kenan Stadium, but features two of the top quarterbacks in the league in Drake Maye and Riley Leonard. It should be an offensive explosion if the Tar Heels are able to replace the loss of Josh Downs.
ESPN’s FPI predicts a fourth Duke loss, with just a 23.0% chance of getting the upset win over their rivals.
Cumulative predicted record: 3-7
After six straight games where Duke will most likely be the underdogs, the Blue Devils get what should be a reprieve when they head on the road to take on Virginia in the second-to-last game of the year. If the Cavaliers are performing like they were last year, and Duke is the same, they should be the better team on paper. But there’s no telling where these two programs will be in November.
The Blue Devils are slightly favored over Virginia by ESPN’s FPI at this point in the offseason, with a 58.6% chance of getting the win.
Cumulative predicted record: 4-7
Duke’s season finale will be at home for the second year in a row, but they haven’t played the Panthers in the last game in some time, if ever. A failed two-point conversion with :47 left on the clock last year resulted in a 28-26 loss, so look for Leonard and crew to enter this game looking for revenge. Pittsburgh will be featuring a new starting QB, as they welcome Boston College transfer Phil Jurkovec. Leading rusher Izzy Abanikanda is gone as well, but Pat Narduzzi always has his team’s playing well.
The Blue Devils are slight underdogs to Pittsburgh by ESPN’s FPI at this point in the offseason, with a 41.8% chance of getting the win.
Cumulative predicted record: 4-8